Thirty-Fifth Edition - Major world languages of the future

The Changing Order of Languages

You have decided to localize your website, product documentation or marketing materials. Now you are trying to decide into which languages. For some, the decision is easy; their product has been selling particularly well in certain countries, where the percentage of the population that claims to speak English is low, or they are driven by regulatory requirements. However, some have no other basis for selection other than number of native speakers. If you fall in this category, this newsletter may be of interest.

The order of the world’s languages is in flux, due to changing demographic and economic trends, the Internet and global communications.

One of the causes of this language crisis is the rapid population growth that occurred during the 20th century, mostly in less developed countries, that is changing the order of languages ranked according to numbers of native speakers. Estimating the number of native speakers for each language is difficult. Data is based on census figures, and on who is considered a native speaker. Therefore, it is not surprising that some languages have been ranked in different order by different experts. Refer to Figure 1 for comparative data from two different sources.

Figure 1 - The World’s Major Languages ranked per number of native speakers. according to the engco¹ model and comparative data from Grimes² (1996) and Graddol (1997: 8)

In the The Future of Language published in the journal Science, David Graddol says that one of the surprising results of this demographic trend is a decline in the number of English native speakers, from 9% of the global population in the mid-20th century to 5% by 2050. Chinese (Mandarin and other dialects that share the common writing system known as Chinese Simplified) will continue to be firmly planted in first place and unchallenged in terms of sheer population numbers and native speakers. Therefore, these demographic changes have affected mainly English, Spanish, Hindi/Urdu and Arabic. With Arabic increasing while English declines, these four languages are expected to converge and be equally ranked by 2050. Arabic faces a particular challenge: According to linguist K. David Harrison, the only reason Arabic isn't at the top of the list is "because varieties of Arabic spoken in say, Egypt and Morocco are mutually incomprehensible." (For more information on the Arabic language, refer to http://www.intersolinc.com/newsletters/newsletter_32.htm )

To visualize the effect of these demographic changes refer to the graph in Figure 2, based on data from the article in the journal Science.

Figure 2 – Estimated numbers of native speakers globally, ages 15 to 24, in 2050

The Outlook is Multilingual

The importance of English for in international business, global communications, science and technology, business, social and cultural affairs is firmly established Most scientific papers (80 – 90%) are written in English, and many technical terms do not have equivalents in other languages. The Internet has been called the flagship of global English; eighty percent of the information stored in the world’s computers (McCrum et al, 1986) is in English, (90% of the world’s computers connected to the Internet are based in English-speaking countries, as are the computers that host websites). Therefore, while the percentage of the global population that grows up speaking English is falling, English continues to be one of the world’s most widely spoken languages. In fact, the number of people who speak English as a second language is expected to be larger than those who speak English as a first language, which raises the question of how much Global English will resemble the language as we know it today.

However, if you are banking on the premise that everyone will speak English, thus making localization unnecessary, you may want to reconsider. Languages other than English are increasingly making their presence felt on the internet, and language experts, like Graddol and Yale Linguist Stephen Anderson, do not expect English to become the world language.

The outlook is multilingual. In the new world order most people will be able to speak more than one language, thus eroding the notion of “one country, one language”, concludes Graddol, adding that “monolingual English speakers may find it difficult to participate in a multilingual society.”

Yale linguist Stephen Anderson agrees. During an interview conducted Randolph E. Schmid, of CBS, Anderson noted that multilingualism is "more or less the natural state. In most of the world multilingualism is the normal condition of people." "While it is important to learn English", Anderson added, "politicians and educators need to realize that doesn't mean abandoning the native language. "

In the his report Mr. Schmid notes that multilingualism is very much present and growing in the United States, where 1 in 5 Americans speaks a language other than English at home, with Spanish leading, followed by Chinese.

English is the official language of 60 countries and one of the principal languages in 20 more. It has spread across Europe, where in some countries, like the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden, about 80 percent of the population claim to speak English. (See Graph in Figure 3, based on estimates extracted from the article published in the journal Science article)

Which languages?

If you have read this far, expecting to find the answer to this question, regrettably, you will be disappointed. The answer lies with you and in your business objectives. However, we hope that this newsletter has provided some useful information on which to base your decision.

¹ The engco forecasting model was developed by The English Company (UK), Ltd to estimate the numbers of speakers of the world’s major languages and to develop forecasts based on demographics, human development and economic data.

² Cornell University linguist, Joseph E. Grimes

References:

The Future of Language, David Graddol, Science (journal of the American Association of the Advancement of Science – www.sciencemag.org), vol. 303, No. 5662, pp. 1329 – 1330.

English Ebbs As World Language, Randolph E. Schmid, www.cbsnews.com

El inglés como lengua internacional, Servidor de Tesis Doctorals en Xarxa (TDX), www.tdx.cesca.es/TESIS_UJI/AVAILABLE/ TDX-1113103-115747/cap2.pdf